Cosmetics sales, and lipstick in particular, have historically held up better than clothing during economic downturns. The pattern is real, though the popular explanation for it is only partly right.
The purchase sits below the decision threshold
Most spending decisions involve a moment of evaluation. Below a certain price that evaluation does not happen, and the item is bought on impulse.
A lipstick sits comfortably below that threshold for many buyers even when larger purchases are being deferred.
Which means the category is not competing with a coat or a holiday. It is competing with a coffee, and it wins that comparison on novelty.
The return per unit spent is high
A new lipstick changes an appearance immediately and visibly, and it can be used every day for months without wearing out.
Very few purchases at that price deliver a daily, visible change, which makes the perceived value unusually strong.
The effect is amplified during periods when other forms of self-presentation are being cut back, since the small purchase carries more of the load.
Substitution runs downward, not outward
When budgets tighten, buyers do not usually stop buying cosmetics. They shift from prestige counters to mass-market ranges.
Total category volume can therefore hold steady or rise while value falls, which is why headline figures and unit figures often disagree.
Retailers read that as resilience, and it is, but the resilience belongs to the category rather than to any particular brand.
The pattern is not universal
The relationship has broken down repeatedly. Periods when face coverings were common shifted spending sharply toward eye products and skincare instead.
Fragrance and treatment products behave differently again, since both carry higher prices and are bought on longer cycles.
Treating the pattern as a law rather than a tendency has misled forecasters more than once, and the underlying driver is affordability rather than lipstick specifically.
Product development follows the behaviour
Brands respond to downturns by pushing smaller sizes, sets and entry-price items rather than by cutting prices on flagship products.
Reformulation into cheaper packaging preserves the margin while keeping the item inside the impulse range, which is where the demand is.
The result is a category structured around a low entry point, and that structure is what produces the resilience rather than any special property of the product itself.